This blog is called The Phenomenal Experience. Let's make it worthy of its title. Let's raise the stakes.

In the previous post, I showed you how to accurately predict the future.

In this post, I’m going to stick my neck out. First, I'll make a “Basic” prediction about my own future. Then I'll show you my rationale and how I plan to control the variables.

That way, you'll see how you can do the same thing with your passion.

But first, let's be clear.

This is not a “goal” or a “target”.

It’s a prediction.

Either I’ll be right... or I won’t be. Sink or swim. Do or die.

And I wouldn’t be making the prediction if I didn’t think it was accurate (conservative, even), so I’m willing to be judged in the future by the results of this prediction.

If nothing else, it should be fun to watch.

THE PREDICTION

As we discovered last time, there are different kinds of predictions. Each is determined by the level of accuracy you're predicting.

Since the variables here are very unpredictable (and uncontrollable), I won't aim for Pinpoint accuracy — I won’t predict a date (some of the variables won't become clear for a few months).

I'll only say that this prediction will come true.

So here's my Basic prediction:

I predict one million+.

Great, Jeff. Could you be a little more specific? One million what?

Well, several things:

• I predict one million+ book sales.
  As I write these words, this website is only read by about 50 people a day, so this seems wildly optimistic. But I'll show you why I think it’s accurate below. (And I’ve added the “+” because I actually think we'll sell significantly more than that.)
• I predict one million+ dollars to charity.
  I’m giving 15% of the proceeds of my book to beat cancer. And once it's cured, the proceeds will go to beat other life-threatening diseases. Since we’ll hit $1,000,000 for charity before we sell a million books, if we hit the first prediction, this one's automatic.
• I predict one million+ people.
  As the ideas in this blog become clearer (and especially after the ideas in the book are revealed and the live show comes online), I predict at least one million people will join me for the live show, where we'll start to spread these ideas across the globe.

That's my prediction. (My time estimate is "within 3 years". But there are too many variables for me to predict the timeframe just yet, so I'm leaving that out of the prediction. I'll predict that later.)

So is this realistic? How do we go from 50 blog readers to 1,000,000+ people/books/charity-dollars?

To understand the thought process behind this prediction (and, more importantly, how you can apply this to your own life), let’s look at the information and variables involved.

Let’s break it down.

ASKING THE PREDICTION QUESTIONS

My goal here is not to hype the book. My goal is to explain my predictions. I want you to understand how and why.

But since the prediction is for the book, I'm going to talk about the book itself, and my ability to write and market it effectively.

To make any prediction, we need to study the elements involved — the background information and the variables we face. We need to know as many details as possible, to know if we’re making an accurate prediction.

We can start with five basic questions:

1. Is the content good enough to hit these numbers?
2. Is the writer capable of creating the content?
3. What needs to happen to reach these numbers?
4. Do the predictions take all the variables into account?
5. What contingency plans ensure the prediction?

Let's look at each question in order.

1.) IS THE CONTENT GOOD ENOUGH TO HIT THESE NUMBERS?

For this book to sell 1,000,000 copies (and attract a million people), it has to be excellent. "Average" books don't sell a million copies. Hell, even excellent books don't always sell that many copies.

So it also must be marketed well. The book has to reach the right people in the right places at the right time.

Is this book up to the task?

To begin with, the book has a strong, powerful, marketable title. Phenomenal: The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy. It’s simple. Short. Memorable. Thought-provoking. Easy to quote, when it comes time for publicity.

So we're off to a good start. But a title alone won't sell a book. It needs content that's equally solid.

For obvious reasons, I can’t yet reveal the content to let you judge for yourself, so you’ll have to trust my assessment of it. But here’s what I can tell you about the content. It is:

• Unique. It has never been presented this way before.
• Complete. The ideas in the book are whole; they stand on their own.
• Compelling. It causes the reader to see his/her life in a whole new way.
• Empowering. The reader is immediately physically and mentally stronger than they were before they read the book.
• Universal. It’s applicable to every man, woman and child on the planet.
• Spreadable. The reader will want to share what they’ve learned.

Now, the strength of my prediction relies upon the accuracy of my assessment of these points. But what if I’m wrong?

If I’m wrong about any of these points, my prediction will fall apart.

So how can I be sure these points are accurate? Let's look at each of the points:

• Q: How do I know it's unique?
  A: Because the idea is so strong, that if it had been presented this way previously, this book would already exist.
• Q: How can I be sure it's complete?
  A: I have been intentionally poking holes in the argument, and then filling the holes with new chapters. The outline was finished when the holes were filled.
• Q: How do I know it's compelling to anyone other than me?
  A: The argument of the book is circular. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. When the argument has been made, it’s new knowledge that can’t be ignored or forgotten. The only way this prediction is wrong is if the information presented is already known or self-obvious (but if that were the case, many things about our world would behave differently). NOTE: My prediction does assume that most people are thoughtful and intelligent (and will therefore find the book compelling). This is an assumption on my part, but I'll write future blog articles to explain why I believe that's accurate.
• Q: How do I know it's empowering?
  A: When the reader fully grasps the essence and implication of "you are phenomenal", they begin to live it, which leads to more powerful actions. This is the very definition of empowerment.
• Q: How do I know it's universal?
  A: The book is about what it means to be human. That makes the book applicable to every human on the planet. That's pretty universal — assuming the book lives up to its title.
• Q: What makes me think it's spreadable?
  A: People who grasp the deeper message of the book will discover that their power increases by sharing powerful information. Readers will uncover a benefit to themselves for spreading the ideas.

Obviously, these are my own judgments of the content. You might think I'm biased — it is my book, after all.

You're right. I am biased.

All I can say is.... Come back to this page after you've read the book, and see if you agree with what I've written here. (If the book has already reached 1,000,000+ by the time you see this page — just remember that this page was here before the book was finished.)

So.

By having a strong title, and unique, compelling, original content, the book itself appears capable of reaching a wide audience.

But that’s only one element affecting this prediction. Let’s look at the others.

2.) IS THE WRITER CAPABLE OF CREATING THE CONTENT?

Many things can go wrong with a project.

It’s possible that a book could have all the right elements going for it — but the writer just isn't up to the task. I'm writing a book called Phenomenal, after all. Can I really write something worthy of that title?

Here are the reasons I think I'm up to the challenge:

• I'm not a first-timer.
  I've written two books before (one self-published, one with a major publishing company), so I've got experience writing content of this magnitude.
• I understand the writing process.
  My first book, Writing FAST: How to Write Anything with Lightning Speed is about the very process of writing. It breaks it down systematically, so I know the mechanics of writing, and I've got a system for writing this book (and this blog).
• I write daily.
  Whether for the book or the blog (or other writing responsibilities), I have developed a habit of writing between 2,000 and 6,000 words per day. Currently estimated at around 75,000 words, the book itself is achievable.
• The subject is my passion.
  After 15 years working to an inverted plan, I've finally realized I need to write the topic that's burning a hole in my brain. I can't do any other projects until after this one is completed and sufficiently successful.
• My journey has made me the only man for the job.
  I believe that each of us takes a different road through life, and that each of us has something to offer the rest of us that no one else can. That gives me the belief that it's my responsibility to share this with the world. So I have the motivation.

Obviously there's some bias here. Every prediction you make in your life will be biased, too. We can't see ourselves with 100% objectivity.

But so far we have a project that (if you agree with my assessment) is a) marketable, b) capable of reaching its target, and c) being written by someone capable of it.

So assuming the assessment is correct:

3.) WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN TO REACH THESE NUMBERS?

We know that the prediction is a target and a goal. But before we can call it a "prediction", we need to map out what must happen in order for the prediction come true.

Here's a rough sketch:

• The book needs to be completed.
  We're not going anywhere until the book is done.
• The book needs to be well-distributed.
  We have to make sure the book gets into as many bookstores and into as wide a variety of sales outlets as possible.
• The book needs to be well-marketed.
  I'll need as much publicity as possible to reach the mainstream. Because one million sales = mainstream.
• The book needs to get favorable reviews.
  To reach 1,000,000+, a lot of people need to love this book. If all the reviewers pan the book or review it unfavorably, that will have an impact on a lot of people. Getting solid reviews means making a book that's worthy of them.
• The book needs its readers to give it good word-of-mouth.
  In addition to good reviews (or possibly irrespective of them), the book needs to generate solid word-of-mouth. If readers tell other would-be readers about the book, the multiplying effect can help us quickly (or slowly) reach the prediction.

Since I believe the book is strong enough to achieve all those things, I believe the prediction is valid.

But since "the best laid plans" can easily go astray, let's look at some of the variables that might prevent the prediction from coming true.

4.) DO THE PREDICTIONS TAKE ALL THE VARIABLES INTO ACCOUNT?

Optimists hate to look at what might go wrong. It goes against our nature. But the fact is, if we don't account for them, they'll sneak up and bite us on the bum.

Theoretically, just about anything could happen to make the prediction wrong.

Let's look at some obvious potential problems:

• We could have difficulty getting reviewed.
  Some outlets are very resistant to reviewing self-published titles. Without high-profile reviews, the reach is (initially) limited.
• We could get poor reviews.
  High-profile bad reviews still publicize a book, and many readers prefer to make their own decisions. But if all the reviews are terrible, marketability could suffer.
• We could have difficulty getting distribution.
  This was the problem with my first book. Major distributors wouldn't work with a publisher with only one title. Now, with more than one title, that might change — but major distributors could still be a challenge, at least until we've got momentum.
• We could have difficulty maintaining a distribution pipeline.
  This is a "good problem". If initial sales are bigger than expected, stock gets depleted before we have the money to print more copies. Juggling sales and production can be a balancing act. (It's one of the reasons the pre-sale offer is important.)
• We could have difficulty getting publicity.
  If publicity outlets don't believe the book is of interest to their audience, we face an uphill battle. Lots of people compete for the same eyeballs these days.
• Major world events could get in the way.
  It's impossible to predict when a major global (or local) event will steal the attention and imagination of everyone in the country (or on the planet). Bad timing happens.
• We could get negative reactions.
  Although everything in the book is empowering, it's always possible that some groups could unexpectedly react negatively to some of the ideas. People often resist what they don't understand.
• Death, fire, earthquakes, damaged stock, etc.
  I could die or be hospitalized, the factory with all the books could burn down, the printer could screw up and then run off with the money. Any number of horrible things could happen that could undercut the momentum of the prediction.

(If you think I've missed anything, please leave ideas in the Comments section below.)

As you can see, many variables can interrupt the prediction.

That's why we need contingency plans.

5.) WHAT CONTINGENCY PLANS ENSURE THE PREDICTION?

I don't think any of those variables can derail the prediction.

Why? Because I've got contingency plans for all of them.

• Difficulty getting reviewed? We'll send out more copies to more reviewers. I'll make visits to people. I'll knock on doors, and we'll pester them to get noticed.
• Poor reviews? I'll post rebuttals online here. We'll seek second opinions. Any reviews that point out objective flaws with the book will be addressed here. (The argument is solid, though, so poor reviews will only come from people who don't like the message, or don't like my writing style.)
• Difficulty getting distribution? I'll call them repeatedly (persistence always pays off). I'll meet them in person. I'll update them with direct sales figures. If all else fails, we'll launch a new distribution company.
• Distribution pipeline problems? I'll work with the printer and shipping folks, arrange credit where I have to. I'll have backup printers in case of overloads or quality problems. There will be multiple companies working with us.
• Problems getting publicity? I'll work with publicists, and find creative new ideas for publicity (in sync with Phenomenal's objectives — nothing obnoxious or intrusive). I've got a ton of ideas on this front, but we'll come up with a ton more.
• Major world events? We'll ride out the shifts in focus. If we launch on a major news day, we'll re-launch again later. I'll attempt to reach world leaders. I'll go everywhere and talk to everyone.
• Negative reactions? I'll write rebuttals to negativism here online. But more importantly, I'll sit down to talk with people who genuinely disagree. I encourage public debate, and welcome the chance to bridge gaps with people who resist the idea that human beings are phenomenal creatures.
• Death or damage? We've got contingency plans for death or health complications, and we'll have insurance and backup plans in case of fire, earthquakes, etc. Once the book is completed and on its way to the printer, it will reach its prediction.

Can you see anything I haven't thought of?

The key to a successful prediction is to be prepared for all the variables that might derail the prediction.

If you see any flaws in my thinking, tell me in the Comments, below. Let's start a dialogue!

But remember one thing.

There's an aspect of this prediction that (in my opinion) makes it a foregone conclusion:

THE ACE UP MY SLEEVE

Clearly the plan looks good on paper. But the final "ace up my sleeve" is this:

I refuse to give up.

This book is my passion. My life purpose. The whole reason I'm here. It's what I most want to do with my life, and they're the ideas I most want to share.

When your life and your projects align, you get excited. And you simply won't stop until you achieve the goal.

I can think of nothing — nothing at all — that would strip me of this passion. If I speak face-to-face with 10,000 individual people, an none of them are interested in this, I'll simply talk to 10,000 more.

And because my goal is to empower you — to show you precisely how and why you are phenomenal — and then show with you the implications, the needs, and the opportunities that come out of that — I'm 100% certain that I will find at least 1,000,000 people who want to help me spread those ideas.

We will turn a prediction into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

So.

Selling a million books, attracting a million people, making a million dollars for charity (and then using it all as a springboard to a phenomenal future) is doable.

It might take more than a year (if we can't get large-scale publicity). It might take more than 5 years (if we can't get reviewed). Some of the variables are extremely unpredictable. I say within 3 years.

But the secret weapon is determination.

It doesn't matter how long this takes. I won't quit until we've reached 1,000,000+. I can't. It's my life purpose.

And that's why this really is about to become the phenomenal experience.

P.S. When there are 1,000,000+ books in circulation, the 5,000 Limited Edition pre-order books will become extremely valuable. That's why we have the buyback guarantee — we'll be happy to have them back — and why I hope you'll take me up on the zero-risk offer. I want you to have one of the rare copies. Be sure to get here on August 1st. Because when they're gone, they're valuable.

Next up, Article #5:
Why Optimism is the
Ultimate Survival Skill